A new report warns that by 2050, more than half of the world’s adults and a third of children and young people will be overweight or obese. This alarming trend presents a severe threat to public health, increasing the risk of early death, disease, and immense pressure on healthcare systems.
According to an analysis published in The Lancet, global efforts to combat obesity have been inadequate over the past 30 years, leading to a sharp rise in cases. Currently, 2.11 billion adults aged 25 and older, along with 493 million children and young people (aged 5-24), are classified as overweight or obese. This marks a significant increase from 731 million adults and 198 million children in 1990.
Without urgent policy reforms, the number of affected individuals will continue to rise. By 2050, an estimated 3.8 billion adults and 746 million children and young people are expected to be overweight or obese. The study predicts an alarming 121% increase in obesity among children and young people, reaching 360 million by mid-century.
Professor Emmanuela Gakidou from the University of Washington, the study’s lead author, called the global obesity epidemic a “monumental societal failure.” The distribution of cases varies globally, with more than half of overweight or obese adults concentrated in eight countries: China (402 million), India (180 million), the U.S. (172 million), Brazil (88 million), Russia (71 million), Mexico (58 million), Indonesia (52 million), and Egypt (41 million).
By 2050, a third of children and young people living with obesity (130 million) are projected to be in North Africa, the Middle East, Latin America, and the Caribbean. The health, economic, and social consequences of this crisis will be profound.
Researchers also highlight that childhood obesity is occurring earlier and progressing more rapidly than in previous generations. This trend significantly increases the risk of conditions such as type 2 diabetes, high blood pressure, heart disease, and cancer at younger ages. In high-income countries, for example, only 7% of men born in the 1960s were obese by age 25. That number rose to 16% for men born in the 1990s and is expected to reach 25% for those born in 2015.
The UK is experiencing similar concerns. The Lancet study forecasts that obesity among children aged 5-14 will rise from 12% to 18.4% in girls and from 9.9% to 15.5% in boys between 2021 and 2050.
Adding to the burden, nearly a quarter of obese adults in 2050 are predicted to be aged 65 or older. This demographic shift will place additional strain on already overburdened healthcare systems, particularly in low-resource countries.
A separate study by the World Obesity Federation, also released on Monday, emphasizes the impact of obesity in poorer nations. The report highlights that lower- and middle-income countries bear the highest number of obesity-related premature deaths, largely due to limited access to treatment.
Johanna Ralston, CEO of the World Obesity Federation, underscored the challenge, stating, “Obesity has significant health, economic, and societal impacts that will be even more difficult for lower-resourced countries to address.”
While the Lancet study relied on the best available data, researchers acknowledged some limitations. Predictions were constrained by the quality of past data, and the potential impact of emerging treatments, such as weight-loss medications, was not considered.
In a related commentary, Thorkild Sørensen of the University of Copenhagen, who was not involved in the study, emphasized the scale of the crisis. He stressed the urgent need for coordinated public health interventions worldwide to address this growing epidemic before its consequences become irreversible.
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